Probability Theory
Thus, bringing
together the rigor of scientific demonstration and the uncertainty
of chance, and reconciling those things which are in appearance contrary
to each other, this art can derive its name from both and justly assume
the astounding title of the Mathematics of Chance.
Blaise Pascal [To do: Find
original French]
Nothing, for
example, is more difficult than to convince the merely general reader
that the fact of sixes having been thrown twice in succession by a
player at dice, is sufficient cause for betting the largest odds that
sixes will not be thrown in the third attempt. A suggestion to this
effect is usually rejected by the intellect at once. It does not appear
that the two throws which have been completed, and which lie now absolutely
in the Past, can have influence upon the throw which exists only in
the Future. The chance for throwing sixes seems to be precisely as
it was at any ordinary time – that is to say, subject only to
the influence of the various other throws which may be made by the
dice. And this is a reflection which appears so exceedingly obvious
that attempts to controvert it are received more frequently with a
derisive smile than with any thing like respectful attention. The
error here involved – a gross error redolent of mischief – I cannot pretend to expose within the limits assigned me at present;
and with the philosophical it needs no exposure. It may be sufficient
here to say that it forms one of an infinite series of mistakes which
arise in the path of Reason through her propensity for seeking truth
in detail.
Edgar Allan Poe: The Mystery of Marie Roget,
1842.
Since mechanically
obtained randomness contains all kinds of possible permutations, including
the most regular ones, it cannot be relied upon always to exhibit
a pervasive irregularity.
Rudolf Arnheim: Entropy & Art, p. 24.
Le vertige idéal
est celui du coup de dés qui finit par "abolir le hasard",
lorsque, contre toute probabilité, le zéro sort plusieurs
fois de suite par exemple. Extase du hasard enrayé, captif
d'une série définitive, c'est le phantasme idéal
du jeu: voir sous le coup du défi, se répéter
le même coup, et du coup s'abolir le hasard et la loi. C'est
dans l'attente de cette surenchère symbolique, c'est à
dire d'un événement qui mette fin au processus aléatoire
sans retomber sous le coup d'une loi objective, que tout le monde
joue. Chaque coup singulier ne cause qu'un médiocre vertige,
mais c'est quand le destin surenchérit - ce qui est le signe
qu'il se prend vraiment au jeu - lorsqu'il semble lui-même lancer
un défi à l'ordre naturel des choses et entrer dans
un délire ou dans un vertige rituel, c'est alors que la passion
se déchaine et qu'une fascination véritablement mortelle
s'empare des esprits.
Jean Baudrillard: De la Séduction (Paris: Galilée, 1979), pp. 201/202.
Quotes
about Chance Art